Bitcoin is holding around $122,000 in Wednesday’s Asian hours after setting a record high at $126,200 earlier this week, with some market watchers still expecting a surge to a record $140,000 later this month.

Economist Timothy Peterson said in an X post Tuesday that bitcoin has a 50% probability of rising to $140,000, citing simulations that were based on data from the past decade.

“There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k,” Peterson said in an X post on Wednesday. “But there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k.”

BTC is up nearly 10% since the start of October, which has historically been one of the most bullish periods for all financial assets. The move has been driven by record ETF inflows and exodus of coins from centralized exchanges.

Exchange balances have dropped to a six-year low of 2.83 million BTC, with 170,000 coins withdrawn in the past month. That mix of steady institutional buying and shrinking supply has kept pullbacks shallow. The U.S-listed spot ETFs have added more than $60 billion since approvals in January 2204, including $3.2 billion last week, the second-largest weekly intake on record.

Trading desks note that the path of least resistance is still higher as “Uptober” plays out. Besides, the outlook for S&P 500 remains constructive, supporting the bull case in BTC.

“Options markets are pricing in a feral 5% chance for another 10% rally in the SPX into year-end, and it’s increasingly difficult to find a negative catalyst to counteract that view,” said Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, said in a Telegram message. “We saw little short liquidation on the recent gap up, suggesting participants are underweight with minimal risk exposures.”

Still, the optimism is not without risk.

“The crypto market is navigating a delicate balance between strong technical support and significant macroeconomic uncertainty,” said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research. “Accumulation trends and institutional demand have propelled prices to new highs, but optimism is still exposed to surprises from the Fed.”

The absence of new economic data releases due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has depriving investors critical insights needed to make fresh allocations. Some observers are worried that lack of new data, particularly inflation, may keep the Fed from cutting rates.

When FOMC and Mag-7 earnings arrive later this month, the data will collide with a market already extended and leaning bullish. That will decide if the next move is a clean run to $140,000 or a reset further lower.

BTC’s rally has paused in the past 24 hours, thanks to profit-taking. Prices have dropped more than 2%,, erasing a run-up since Sunday and pulling down XRP, Solana’s SOL, ether (ETH) and Cardano’s ADA down as much as 7%.

BNB Chain’s BNB stands out with 1.5% gains in the same period, the lone wolf in the green as its underlying ecosystem sees a flurry of fresh activity.

My lens: $125,000 is the battle line. ETF demand and whale withdrawals give the bulls a cushion, but the quiet from macro will not last.