Wall Street banking and research firm Compass Point has initiated coverage of crypto platform Bullish (BLSH), the parent company of CoinDesk, with a neutral rating and a $45 price target.

Despite a belief that Bullish’s lower fee structure could help it chip away at Coinbase’s (COIN) U.S. market share in the future, the analyst Ed Engel cited concerns about the timing as well as the stock’s valuation.

“We have a hard time seeing Bullish entering U.S. markets until Congress passes market structure legislation (i.e. the CLARITY Act),” Engel wrote. The CLARITY ACT, a bill aiming to clarify jurisdiction between the CFTC and SEC, however, might not be passed until the first half of 2026.

Even then, New York’s notoriously strict BitLicense regime could pose a hurdle, according to Engel. Regulators may be wary of Bullish’s model, which allows the company to act as its own market maker via its automated market maker (AMM) — a setup that could raise conflict-of-interest concerns, he said.

“We think there could be a better buying opportunity within 1-2 quarters,” wrote Engel, pointing to the stock’s current 110x multiple on 2026 projected EBITDA.

Bullish also holds a $2.7 billion crypto treasury, mostly in bitcoin (BTC), which ties the stock’s performance closely to BTC price swings. That can be a double-edged sword, said Engel, reminding of bitcoin’s notorious volatility.

Engel’s $45 target assumes bitcoin hits $160,000 and includes a 50% probability that Bullish will break into the U.S. market. That potential expansion alone could add an estimated $12 per share in value, according to Engel.

Bullish went public in August at $37 per share and shot sharply higher before closing at $68 on its opening day.

Shares were down 4.6% Wednesday to $59.20.