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You are here: Home / Bitcoin Industry News / Harvard Professor Who Predicted Bitcoin Crash to $100 Says Regulators Were Too Lax

August 21, 2025

Harvard Professor Who Predicted Bitcoin Crash to $100 Says Regulators Were Too Lax

In 2018, Kenneth S Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, predicted bitcoin (BTC) was more likely to be worth $100 than $100,000 in a decade.

In reality, bitcoin’s price rose above $100,000 this year, a 10-fold increase from March 2018’s sub-$10,000 level when Rogoff predicted the crash.

On Tuesday, with bitcoin hovering around $113,000, Rogoff reflected on how he had missed the mark, saying he had been “far too optimistic about the U.S. coming to its senses regarding sensible cryptocurrency regulation.”

In a post on X, Harvard economist Ken Rogoff expressed said he’d expected policymakers to adopt a firm stance to curb the use of cryptocurrencies in tax evasion and illegal activities. He was, indirectly, criticizing the regulatory environment as being less than prudent and allowing cryptocurrencies like BTC to flourish in ways he did not anticipate.

Rogoff underestimated how bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transaction medium of choice in the 20 trillion-dollar global underground economy.

“This demand puts a floor on its price, as I discuss at length in my new book Our Dollar, Your Problem,” Rogoff said.

He also flagged a “blatant conflict of interest,” with regulators “holding hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence.”

Author: Omkar Godbole

Filed Under: Bitcoin Industry News

Expert Witness

Ty Sagalow head shotTy Sagalow's unique background in legal, underwriting, policy drafting and claims – and his designation as a “qualified insurance expert” by the United States District Court for the Southern District of California – offers attorneys an unparalleled resource in D&O, E&O and Cyber insurance coverage disputes. He was also named "Most Helpful Expert" in a recent $8.7M coverage decision.

Mr. Sagalow served as Chief Underwriting Officer and General Counsel for AIG Executive Liability (formerly National Union Fire Insurance Company of Pittsburgh, PA), the world’s largest carrier of Directors and Officers Liability and Professional Liability Insurance. As General Counsel, Mr. Sagalow personally wrote or led teams that wrote all the D&O policies and many of the professional liability policies that AIG produced between 1988 and 2000 – policies which continue to serve as the foundational wording for the D&O and professional liability policies in the market today. As AIG Executive Liability’s Chief Underwriting Officer, Mr. Sagalow was charged with all underwriting interpretations and decisions for AIG D&O/E&O policies. In 2009, Mr. Sagalow headed up the team that rewrote all D&O policies for Zurich North America.

Ty is a cum laude graduate of Georgetown University Law Center and holds a LLM from New York University School of Law.

Bitcoin Insurance

Combining his talents as a network security insurance expert and an insurance product development expert, Ty Sagalow is the leading expert on the unique risk and insurance needs of the bitcoin industry.

With the successful sale of BitSecure(tm), the first bitcoin theft insurance policy in February of 2015, he is the first to create a sustainable, robust insurance policy to cover the theft of bitcoins and other virtual currency backed by an A-Rated, global “top 10” Property and Casualty insurance company.

Company Profile

Innovation Insurance Group is an insurance consulting firm and insurance brokerage founded by 30-year insurance executive, Ty R. Sagalow, former Chief Underwriting Officer, General Counsel and Chief Innovation Officer at AIG, and former Chief Innovation Officer at Zurich, NA and Tower Group. IIG focuses on three core practice groups: product development, expert witness services (primarily in the Management and Professional Liability areas), and bitcoin industry brokerage services.

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