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You are here: Home / Bitcoin Industry News / Kalshi Outpaces Polymarket in Prediction Market Volume Amid Surge in U.S. Trading

September 21, 2025

Kalshi Outpaces Polymarket in Prediction Market Volume Amid Surge in U.S. Trading

Kalshi is pulling ahead in the prediction market race, capturing a dominant share of trading volume even as competitors like Polymarket push into regulated U.S. territory.

From Sept. 11 to 17, Kalshi accounted for 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector, according to data from Dune Analytics, while Polymarket’s stood at 37%. The former’s weekly trading pace topped $500 million, with an average open interest of around $189 million.

Prediction market volumes (Dune)

Its volume is beyond that of Polymarket, which stood at $430 million, and its average open interest of $164 million, which implies “sticker positions on Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi.”

Polymarket’s longer-term markets, which often stretch over weeks or months, keep user funds locked in for longer periods, essentially.

This shows up in the open interest-to-volume ratio: Polymarket averaged 0.38, while Kalshi sat lower at 0.29. That suggests Kalshi’s users are trading more often, while Polymarket’s positions tend to sit.

Still, Polymarket is building out a greater position in the U.S. The platform has cleared its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, to enter the country again.

It has also launched earnings-based markets with social investing platform Stocktwits, designed to let stockholders hedge earnings risk and analysts gauge market sentiment in real time.

Read more: Polymarket Weighs $9B Valuation Amid User Surge and CFTC Approval: The Information

Author: Francisco Rodrigues

Filed Under: Bitcoin Industry News

Expert Witness

Ty Sagalow head shotTy Sagalow's unique background in legal, underwriting, policy drafting and claims – and his designation as a “qualified insurance expert” by the United States District Court for the Southern District of California – offers attorneys an unparalleled resource in D&O, E&O and Cyber insurance coverage disputes. He was also named "Most Helpful Expert" in a recent $8.7M coverage decision.

Mr. Sagalow served as Chief Underwriting Officer and General Counsel for AIG Executive Liability (formerly National Union Fire Insurance Company of Pittsburgh, PA), the world’s largest carrier of Directors and Officers Liability and Professional Liability Insurance. As General Counsel, Mr. Sagalow personally wrote or led teams that wrote all the D&O policies and many of the professional liability policies that AIG produced between 1988 and 2000 – policies which continue to serve as the foundational wording for the D&O and professional liability policies in the market today. As AIG Executive Liability’s Chief Underwriting Officer, Mr. Sagalow was charged with all underwriting interpretations and decisions for AIG D&O/E&O policies. In 2009, Mr. Sagalow headed up the team that rewrote all D&O policies for Zurich North America.

Ty is a cum laude graduate of Georgetown University Law Center and holds a LLM from New York University School of Law.

Bitcoin Insurance

Combining his talents as a network security insurance expert and an insurance product development expert, Ty Sagalow is the leading expert on the unique risk and insurance needs of the bitcoin industry.

With the successful sale of BitSecure(tm), the first bitcoin theft insurance policy in February of 2015, he is the first to create a sustainable, robust insurance policy to cover the theft of bitcoins and other virtual currency backed by an A-Rated, global “top 10” Property and Casualty insurance company.

Company Profile

Innovation Insurance Group is an insurance consulting firm and insurance brokerage founded by 30-year insurance executive, Ty R. Sagalow, former Chief Underwriting Officer, General Counsel and Chief Innovation Officer at AIG, and former Chief Innovation Officer at Zurich, NA and Tower Group. IIG focuses on three core practice groups: product development, expert witness services (primarily in the Management and Professional Liability areas), and bitcoin industry brokerage services.

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